SETI: First Detection

Ironically this one would probably impart the least initial change on society. Religions would merely adapt as they always do, revising their doctrine to explain how prophets long dead had predicted these happenings all along and long ago. By first contact I just mean detection of a radio or other EM band modulation pointing to intelligent origin. Also possible, future super telescopes will find a technological signature to some nearby star system, some phenomenon like Dyson Spheres that could only be explained by intelligent activity. Without some kind of galactic Rosetta stone however, the mere discovery of the existence of ET will likely be of little immediate practical use. However it would likely be the impetus for a new space race: one to build new giant observatories in space looking for more signals, that might give statistical insight into the frequency of intelligent life in the universe and the possibility of eventually creating a SETI Rosetta Stone. Assuming the alien ET signals could eventually be deciphered, the contents of these transmissions could be very disruptive depending on what knowledge ET has thrown at us from across the gulf of space.

There are those that call SETI a waste of time and money. The main argument goes that we have searched a long time and found nothing, so there must be nothing. It might be noted that physicists have not yet found the Higgs Boson, but no one dissuades them from looking, or asserts that having not yet been found it can never be found. Our searches of the heavens have been much spottier and feeble than most would assume. Still I assume that the time-to-stop-looking argument is put forth by people that have already come to conclusions about the likely existence of ET based on other facts or beliefs and are in some cases a tad disingenuous.

Most people are familiar with Drake's famous equation:
N = R_* * F_p * N_e * F_l * F_i * F_c * L

Sometime ago I plugged in conservative parameters to this equation and came up with the answer 37.5 likely intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy alone. However I went on to add spatial constraints to the calculations and entered a term for being able to detect alien signals within a 100 light-year radius. This would be about right for a strong signal from a large dish to be detected by a large dish. It also would be similar to the time our first feeble signals could be detected (though not answered, as that would require a return trip of equal time). Given this constraint the chances of detection, assuming you look at the right time in the right place, fall to 1 in 2848. Now assuming we concentrate our energies on improving our detection abilities to double the distance we can detect signals every 2 years (similar to Moore's Law) then we should expect to detect a signal within just over 20 years. While I think this a feasible goal I doubt it will happen -- this branch of science has always had a PR problem.


Here is how I would place the odds on us detecting a signal of unambiguous alien origin:
10 Years 5%
20 Years 20%
50 Years 50%
100 Years 70%
Never 20% (Fermi's Paradox resolved by us being alone)

If a signal were detected relatively soon...
Here is how I would place the odds on years required to extract useful information content from it.
10 Years 20%
20 Years 50%
50 Years 60%
100 Years 70%
Never 20% (If the signal is not intended for us there may be no way of correlating its symbolic content to anything meaningful).

Drake SETI Calculator (with Larry's detection distance enhancement)

Current SETI News